Richard Crenian Blogs
February 9, 2009
“Of Speculators and Crazies……”
The Donald was on Larry King the other night. I liked what he said (even though I am not too crazy about him).
He said that the government should not meddle in the cause of business, and that the government should allow banks to fail. I think he is right. If we believe in a free enterprise, and a capitalistic society then banks will fail, businesses will fail it is only natural? Why prop up the banks and then in the case of the USA, find out that the Executives paid themselves bonuses of $18 BILLION last year with tax payer’s money?
He said that if businesses fail, then maybe we can buy some cheap assets and make some money in the long run. Makes sense to me.
Here is why I don’t like some of his advice. Prior to the crash, the Donald was predicting that his condos would always go up in price. I never figured out why one would buy expensive condos unless you are going to live in them. If you speculate, does the rent cover your expenses? If it doesn’t when the crash in condos comes, (and it is here folks!) the true value of the condo is what you can rent it for and keep your head above water with the rental after expenses.
The Speculation was all driven by greed and I know that we have some of that in us. However in our portfolio did we set aside some money for cash flowing investments?
Howard? He is driving to Tucson as we speak, he drove from Calgary to Salt Lake City last night, and now will hit Arizona and the warmth today. Lucky guy, he will be on the golf course tomorrow I am sure. He turns 65 next week, and the smartest thing he did was to invest in our cash flowing assets. Ask him, he is at 403-630-4544 on his cell.
Richard Crenian
Monday, February 9, 2009
Thursday, February 5, 2009
"True Value" by Richard Crenian
Richard Crenian Blogs
February 5, 2009
“True Value”
I read yesterday that Calgary home sales are off.
The Calgary Herald reported that “The average sale price was $413,049, down 9.28 per cent from $455,297 a year ago. The average days on the market to sell a home was 62, up 24 per cent from 50 days last year. And the month-end inventory increased by 1.1 per cent to 4,040 this year from 3,997 a year ago. New listings during the month were 31.6 per cent less than a year ago at 2,068 compared with 3,023.”
Ok let’s analyze this for a second.
An average sale price in Calgary costs what?? $413,000? Are you kidding me? Isn’t that a little expensive for a city with an average sale price of a home in the year 2000 at $176,500??? (http://www.calgary.ca/docgallery/bu/cns/homelessness/trends_affordable_home_ownership_calgary.pdf)
You have to wonder how the news comes at you. The fact is that since 2000, the average price of a home in Calgary has increased 2.3 times. How ridiculous is that?
You wonder why? Guys were buying homes and flipping homes for $25,000 to $50,000 more within ninety days with a short supply in Calgary. So now the house prices are easing and supply is growing as the speculators are forced to sell as they don’t have the funds to carry the houses.
So in all this bad news what’s the good news?
Good news is as the speculators get out and house prices ease, more real home owners will get back into the market place, but this will take a while. So, if you bought or invested in land to build those large track of houses, you are kinda (how should I say this kindly?) “in a pickle.”
Land prices will obviously drop substantially if there is no demand. The land sellers of old that sold you their land prior to the “highs” are laughing, and you if you did buy or invest in land are stuck.
Not everyone bought land or invested in land. In tougher times you can’t get cash flow from non farming land, so I am sure we will see banks take action and foreclose on the existing high purchased land owners and investors now. (Sorry for the bad news).
How did we stay recession proof? Simple. Don’t be greedy, be patient and buy cash flowing product. Ask Howard if he is worried? He is going to Tucson to relax. His cash flow from our product is paying his way. 4036304544.
Richard Crenian
February 5, 2009
“True Value”
I read yesterday that Calgary home sales are off.
The Calgary Herald reported that “The average sale price was $413,049, down 9.28 per cent from $455,297 a year ago. The average days on the market to sell a home was 62, up 24 per cent from 50 days last year. And the month-end inventory increased by 1.1 per cent to 4,040 this year from 3,997 a year ago. New listings during the month were 31.6 per cent less than a year ago at 2,068 compared with 3,023.”
Ok let’s analyze this for a second.
An average sale price in Calgary costs what?? $413,000? Are you kidding me? Isn’t that a little expensive for a city with an average sale price of a home in the year 2000 at $176,500??? (http://www.calgary.ca/docgallery/bu/cns/homelessness/trends_affordable_home_ownership_calgary.pdf)
You have to wonder how the news comes at you. The fact is that since 2000, the average price of a home in Calgary has increased 2.3 times. How ridiculous is that?
You wonder why? Guys were buying homes and flipping homes for $25,000 to $50,000 more within ninety days with a short supply in Calgary. So now the house prices are easing and supply is growing as the speculators are forced to sell as they don’t have the funds to carry the houses.
So in all this bad news what’s the good news?
Good news is as the speculators get out and house prices ease, more real home owners will get back into the market place, but this will take a while. So, if you bought or invested in land to build those large track of houses, you are kinda (how should I say this kindly?) “in a pickle.”
Land prices will obviously drop substantially if there is no demand. The land sellers of old that sold you their land prior to the “highs” are laughing, and you if you did buy or invest in land are stuck.
Not everyone bought land or invested in land. In tougher times you can’t get cash flow from non farming land, so I am sure we will see banks take action and foreclose on the existing high purchased land owners and investors now. (Sorry for the bad news).
How did we stay recession proof? Simple. Don’t be greedy, be patient and buy cash flowing product. Ask Howard if he is worried? He is going to Tucson to relax. His cash flow from our product is paying his way. 4036304544.
Richard Crenian
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
"Imagine That!" by Richard Crenian
Richard Crenian Blogs
"Imagine That!." By Richard Crenian
Jan 27-09
GM, and Chrysler in Canada are looking for a bailout of $4 billion from the Feds in Canada and the Feds are saying OK, but first you need to BUT first GM Canada and Chrysler Canada you need to be more competitive and slash labour costs to “ahem”, match U.S. levels.
The Canadian Auto Workers, the Union that some of my hard working friends work for, say that they are going to fight it! My friends want to keep their jobs, but if they have their unions fight for more money, they know that we become less competitive and in the end, may lose their jobs. So what’s up with that?
The end run is they are to match those of the Japanese car makers in North America so that we can keep our jobs here and our economy flowing! No magic in that thinking.
According to the Wall Street Journal today the “U.S. home sales registered their biggest monthly jump in nearly seven years in December, as cratering prices began to draw out more buyers and several major housing markets showed some signs of stabilizing.”
Wow, houses are cheaper therefore we have more sales! Imagine that!!
My business partner Howard says that if things are cheap enough and they appear to be a good deal and have good value people will buy.
Meanwhile our biggest sermon has always been to keep your money safe, secure and growing without risk. Cash flow is King in these times. Ask Howard how he does it! 4036304544.
Richard Crenian
"Imagine That!." By Richard Crenian
Jan 27-09
GM, and Chrysler in Canada are looking for a bailout of $4 billion from the Feds in Canada and the Feds are saying OK, but first you need to BUT first GM Canada and Chrysler Canada you need to be more competitive and slash labour costs to “ahem”, match U.S. levels.
The Canadian Auto Workers, the Union that some of my hard working friends work for, say that they are going to fight it! My friends want to keep their jobs, but if they have their unions fight for more money, they know that we become less competitive and in the end, may lose their jobs. So what’s up with that?
The end run is they are to match those of the Japanese car makers in North America so that we can keep our jobs here and our economy flowing! No magic in that thinking.
According to the Wall Street Journal today the “U.S. home sales registered their biggest monthly jump in nearly seven years in December, as cratering prices began to draw out more buyers and several major housing markets showed some signs of stabilizing.”
Wow, houses are cheaper therefore we have more sales! Imagine that!!
My business partner Howard says that if things are cheap enough and they appear to be a good deal and have good value people will buy.
Meanwhile our biggest sermon has always been to keep your money safe, secure and growing without risk. Cash flow is King in these times. Ask Howard how he does it! 4036304544.
Richard Crenian
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
"What, A Strange Recession?"
"What, a Recession?" By Richard Crenian
Jan 20-09
I traveled from Toronto to Calgary last night and couldn't believe how busy the Toronto (YYZ) airport was.....and the flight to Calgary (YYC) was absolutely jammed pack.
The irony was the flight cost was substantially more at $40 Oil today than it was at $120.....what gives? How can that be?
As I pretend I'm a fly on the wall I hear the talk of all these business deals starting to happen, and I spoke to my friend Donnie who lives in Florida. He tells me sales of homes are down and prices are depressed.
Don said that you would never know it when you go out and see all the restaurants full all the people about town, shopping up a storm in the popular shopping centers.
A room at two major hotels downtown Calgary if you can in on short notice, is $300-$400 a night!!
A car rental for a full size car with taxes during the week is $90 a day.
What the heck, if this is a recession, where is the doom and gloom, why is business being conducted and why are rooms, cars and flights so expensive?
Supply and demand?
If there is high demand and low supply that's a recession? I know I slept through a lot of my Economics classes in school, but logically it still doesn't make sense.
I'm told there is a major recession but look around.......restaurants, traffic, airports and shopping centers......are busy.
In Toronto those 70 per cent off signs have come off.
The 50 percent signs are for existing product.
In Calgary, with $40 oil, the same story with restaurants and shopping centers appearing full.
Ok so who is suffering?
Realtors, Home Stores, Car Dealers, non-basic retailers.
Note to self, when buying cash flow commercial products, avoid furniture and home stores, car dealers, leasing companies and realty companies.
Stick with bread and butter businesses. You read it here first.
Richard Crenian
Jan 20-09
I traveled from Toronto to Calgary last night and couldn't believe how busy the Toronto (YYZ) airport was.....and the flight to Calgary (YYC) was absolutely jammed pack.
The irony was the flight cost was substantially more at $40 Oil today than it was at $120.....what gives? How can that be?
As I pretend I'm a fly on the wall I hear the talk of all these business deals starting to happen, and I spoke to my friend Donnie who lives in Florida. He tells me sales of homes are down and prices are depressed.
Don said that you would never know it when you go out and see all the restaurants full all the people about town, shopping up a storm in the popular shopping centers.
A room at two major hotels downtown Calgary if you can in on short notice, is $300-$400 a night!!
A car rental for a full size car with taxes during the week is $90 a day.
What the heck, if this is a recession, where is the doom and gloom, why is business being conducted and why are rooms, cars and flights so expensive?
Supply and demand?
If there is high demand and low supply that's a recession? I know I slept through a lot of my Economics classes in school, but logically it still doesn't make sense.
I'm told there is a major recession but look around.......restaurants, traffic, airports and shopping centers......are busy.
In Toronto those 70 per cent off signs have come off.
The 50 percent signs are for existing product.
In Calgary, with $40 oil, the same story with restaurants and shopping centers appearing full.
Ok so who is suffering?
Realtors, Home Stores, Car Dealers, non-basic retailers.
Note to self, when buying cash flow commercial products, avoid furniture and home stores, car dealers, leasing companies and realty companies.
Stick with bread and butter businesses. You read it here first.
Richard Crenian
Monday, January 19, 2009
"Retail In Canada-09" by Richard Crenian
Richard Crenian Blogs
January 19, 2009
“Retail in Canada-09”
We are truly blessed to be in Canada. The attitude that bigger is better in the USA is not always true. Look at what has happened in the States.
So much competition for the products to sell and when you don’t have a good month and good cash flow coming in you are toast! Just ask the airlines. They are only a few DAYS away from going bye bye!
We have seen Circuit City and Linens and Things go, in the US, and now who else?
We did see Winn Dixie the grocery store go bye as well earlier.
Why haven’t we seen any majors in Canada go the way of the Dinosaur.
Here is why retailers I think, in Canada will survive better than the USA.
Canada has about 14 square feet of retail space per capita, while in the U.S. that is approximately 30 square feet per capita.
That means there is twice as much retail space in the USA than there is in Canada.
That also means compared to the US, Canadian sales are twice as high per square foot than the US. If that is the case, it should be obvious that the Canadian retailers are more profitable in their space that they are in, and should be in a better spot to remain liquid when there is a full sales slowdown.
Apparently that according to some retail sales in Canada are the best statistic to monitor what is happening in Canada, since there has been only one year that there has been a decline in sales on an aggregate nominal basis, ……and that year was 1934!
So do I like retail space in Canada-yes! Do I see retail space in the US becoming a problem-yes. Canadian rents are still low and therefore there may be a potential upside to the landlords as rents renew.
Rents in Alberta still have a way to go up.
We have been focused on buying non-box centres because we believe that if the box centres have failures then it will take a lot of space away from the centres. Believing in Canadian retailers is our only option.
Call Howard, and ask him how the slush is in Calgary? 403 630 4544.
Richard Crenian
January 19, 2009
“Retail in Canada-09”
We are truly blessed to be in Canada. The attitude that bigger is better in the USA is not always true. Look at what has happened in the States.
So much competition for the products to sell and when you don’t have a good month and good cash flow coming in you are toast! Just ask the airlines. They are only a few DAYS away from going bye bye!
We have seen Circuit City and Linens and Things go, in the US, and now who else?
We did see Winn Dixie the grocery store go bye as well earlier.
Why haven’t we seen any majors in Canada go the way of the Dinosaur.
Here is why retailers I think, in Canada will survive better than the USA.
Canada has about 14 square feet of retail space per capita, while in the U.S. that is approximately 30 square feet per capita.
That means there is twice as much retail space in the USA than there is in Canada.
That also means compared to the US, Canadian sales are twice as high per square foot than the US. If that is the case, it should be obvious that the Canadian retailers are more profitable in their space that they are in, and should be in a better spot to remain liquid when there is a full sales slowdown.
Apparently that according to some retail sales in Canada are the best statistic to monitor what is happening in Canada, since there has been only one year that there has been a decline in sales on an aggregate nominal basis, ……and that year was 1934!
So do I like retail space in Canada-yes! Do I see retail space in the US becoming a problem-yes. Canadian rents are still low and therefore there may be a potential upside to the landlords as rents renew.
Rents in Alberta still have a way to go up.
We have been focused on buying non-box centres because we believe that if the box centres have failures then it will take a lot of space away from the centres. Believing in Canadian retailers is our only option.
Call Howard, and ask him how the slush is in Calgary? 403 630 4544.
Richard Crenian
"On Being Responsible" by Richard Crenian
Richard Crenian Blogs
January 19, 2009
“On Being Responsible!”
It’s amazing being in Toronto. We had the “recessionary feel” in August 08, and the stores went nuts with their 70 per cent off items in November and everyone thought that the world was going to come to an end.
The doom and gloom in Toronto was felt by everyone since we are exposed to the financial malaise of Bay Street and all its effects. The Bay Streeters were losing their jobs, commissions were now halved and how were they going to keep making their payments when their million dollar salaries were now only $500,000.00.
Surely the world was going to end.
How do you afford two million plus houses, multiple leased cars, kids in private schools and two or more nannies?
Then there were the exotic vacations and the shopping sprees that they had to consider.
The world as we knew it in November was at the end and the Toronto that we knew was over and done with.
What happened since then? Yes house prices are off, the sales have stopped and reality has set in. So no more exotic vacations and endless shopping sprees, and that’s OK.
So you have to return a car or two and the extra nanny has gone. You have negotiated with the bank to reduce your house payment and the credit cards are not being used anymore. That is being responsible, and because of that we have survived, and will continue to do so.
Ahh, there is the rub. Toronto has become more responsible and since January the 1st you can feel the doom lifted and actually see the sun peeking through. Are we out of it yet? Probably not, but we have become more responsible and enjoying our lives and the quality it produces much more.
Perhaps the next boom will teach us all how to remain sane after all.
Richard Crenian
January 19, 2009
“On Being Responsible!”
It’s amazing being in Toronto. We had the “recessionary feel” in August 08, and the stores went nuts with their 70 per cent off items in November and everyone thought that the world was going to come to an end.
The doom and gloom in Toronto was felt by everyone since we are exposed to the financial malaise of Bay Street and all its effects. The Bay Streeters were losing their jobs, commissions were now halved and how were they going to keep making their payments when their million dollar salaries were now only $500,000.00.
Surely the world was going to end.
How do you afford two million plus houses, multiple leased cars, kids in private schools and two or more nannies?
Then there were the exotic vacations and the shopping sprees that they had to consider.
The world as we knew it in November was at the end and the Toronto that we knew was over and done with.
What happened since then? Yes house prices are off, the sales have stopped and reality has set in. So no more exotic vacations and endless shopping sprees, and that’s OK.
So you have to return a car or two and the extra nanny has gone. You have negotiated with the bank to reduce your house payment and the credit cards are not being used anymore. That is being responsible, and because of that we have survived, and will continue to do so.
Ahh, there is the rub. Toronto has become more responsible and since January the 1st you can feel the doom lifted and actually see the sun peeking through. Are we out of it yet? Probably not, but we have become more responsible and enjoying our lives and the quality it produces much more.
Perhaps the next boom will teach us all how to remain sane after all.
Richard Crenian
Sunday, January 11, 2009
"Naughty, naughty!"
Richard Crenian
January 9, 2009
“Naughty, naughty!”
From today’s Globe and Mail…….. “The bad news is that we are in a recession, and a fairly deep one at that. The good news is that the stock market has already discounted a depression,” said Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist and chief strategist.”
Thanks Jeff, tell us something we don’t know. Wait, Jeff are you saying that the stock market is a buy? Hmmmm……..Jeff read my blog on my New Year’s Resolution that I don’t trust the stock market anymore and that it is a gamble, and what you are saying, may be a gamble even though it may occur.
Let’s look…….Bernie Madoff? You are a bad man. You ripped off your friends, family, put their hard earned saved money in jeopardy and told everyone what a genius you were in the stock market. They believed you, and now they have lost their money and you Sir, go to jail! If you had stuck with hard assets, kicking off cash flow maybe, just maybe instead of jail, you could be golfing with Howard. But, you were too smart!
By the way even in Canada, (from the Globe again today)…………
“Biovail Corp. has agreed to pay a $5-million penalty and costs of $1.5-million to the Ontario Securities Commission after it admitted misleading investors in its financial disclosure.
Under the settlement, approved today by a panel of OSC commissioners, Biovail acknowledged that some of its financial filings in 2001, 2002 and 2003 were “inaccurate.” The Mississauga-based company also made false statements to the OSC during its investigation, the settlement says. The penalty is the largest ever imposed on a company by the OSC.”
Naughty, naughty……….
Richard Crenian
January 9, 2009
“Naughty, naughty!”
From today’s Globe and Mail…….. “The bad news is that we are in a recession, and a fairly deep one at that. The good news is that the stock market has already discounted a depression,” said Jeff Rubin, CIBC World Markets chief economist and chief strategist.”
Thanks Jeff, tell us something we don’t know. Wait, Jeff are you saying that the stock market is a buy? Hmmmm……..Jeff read my blog on my New Year’s Resolution that I don’t trust the stock market anymore and that it is a gamble, and what you are saying, may be a gamble even though it may occur.
Let’s look…….Bernie Madoff? You are a bad man. You ripped off your friends, family, put their hard earned saved money in jeopardy and told everyone what a genius you were in the stock market. They believed you, and now they have lost their money and you Sir, go to jail! If you had stuck with hard assets, kicking off cash flow maybe, just maybe instead of jail, you could be golfing with Howard. But, you were too smart!
By the way even in Canada, (from the Globe again today)…………
“Biovail Corp. has agreed to pay a $5-million penalty and costs of $1.5-million to the Ontario Securities Commission after it admitted misleading investors in its financial disclosure.
Under the settlement, approved today by a panel of OSC commissioners, Biovail acknowledged that some of its financial filings in 2001, 2002 and 2003 were “inaccurate.” The Mississauga-based company also made false statements to the OSC during its investigation, the settlement says. The penalty is the largest ever imposed on a company by the OSC.”
Naughty, naughty……….
Richard Crenian
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
